Erich Steinke
Introduction
The People’s Republic of China (China, PRC) is one of the major superpowers currently in existence around the globe. This has brought the country to blows with other world superpowers such as the United States (U.S.), the European Union (E.U.), the Republic of India, and the Russian Federation (Russia). However, they are often seen collaborating with Russia. With this in mind, it is no surprise that China would want to defend itself from what it may perceive as a multitude of threats around the world, especially as most of these opponent powers carry with them a nuclear arsenal capable of wiping out even a country as large as China in hours. Because of this, since its foundation in a post-Second World War world, the PRC has gone to great lengths to bolster and develop its military.
However, armaments may not always be as cut and dry as ‘self-defense,’ and politicians famously cannot always be taken at their word when they try to justify certain acts. Many acts the PRC has taken have been seen as aggressive by other world powers or even just by China’s local neighbors. It has expanded its territorial claims far beyond its own waters to the point that Chinese naval vessels will harass other countries’ fishers to get them out of international waters. China has even begun expanding islands in an attempt to grow the water that it can lay claim to. Many of these acts have seen significant public pushback from other world powers against China, but this has not stopped the country from continuing to do so.
So, as China continues to develop its military and uses that military to gain its way, one question must be asked: Is China’s military development a threat, or is it truly just defensive development being taken the wrong way?
This writer believes that China’s development is intended to be used threateningly and is not being developed solely for defensive purposes.
This writer will record recent and past developments for China’s armed forces as well as how these forces have been utilized. They will begin by describing China’s history with other world powers, both modern and ancient. Many of the PRC’s neighbors have fought them many times before, and this has resulted in long-standing bitterness between China and its neighbors. Next, there will be an exploration of China’s army, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and what has been developed for them alongside the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). Following this will be an exploration of China’s navy, the People’s Liberation Army’s Navy (PLAN), and how it has been developed and utilized. Then, China’s nuclear development, which depending on view, may be the most important weapon China has and has been developing. Finally, it will end with a general description of China’s hostile actions towards or against its worldwide opponents, alongside the justifications for these actions.
At the end of this paper, all points raised will be discussed, with sources’ biases considered, and a final conclusion will be reached as to why China’s military is the way it is.
Historical Background
China has a rich history that spans thousands of years back to antiquity. Much as any other country, this lengthy history has been marred with significant conflict, both with neighbors in its region and equally as often with itself. For hundreds of years, China existed as a great many warring states in a near-constant state of civil war with each other. This conflict has also, on occasion, erupted into war with its nearby neighbors. Ancient Chinese warlords invaded Vietnam, Korea, India, and Japan (Xiaobing, 2012). This is a history that has not been forgotten even to this day, as many of these nations still hold out against Chinese expansion and, even in contemporary times, accuse them of aggressive acts.
In modern day, however, Chinese aggression has not cleared up. It still remains in conflict with its neighbors despite China’s ancient history. Chinese warships go out into the South China Sea and harass Japanese and Korean fishers in international waters, where they legally have no power to do so, and it attempts to assert its dominance in areas of Southeast Asia that it has little right to do so in under the guise of self-defense (Choudhary, 2023).
This aggression has led to no less tension between China and its neighbors in the region. In fact, it has led to more. China and India seem to be in almost constant conflict in the small border the two nations have, regularly making peacock displays on the border to try and get the other side to back down or back off. Vietnamese fishermen have been harassed out of international waters by Chinese warships threatening to fire upon them for their mere presence. Japan has no real military to speak of beyond its relatively small self-defense force, and China exists as an existential threat to the much smaller country.
These conflicts have not improved since China transformed from the Republic of China to Communist China shortly after the Second World War. Writing about China’s advancements without first considering its founding is impossible. In 1949, when the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) took over after forcing the former power into exile, Mao Zedong laid out the “100 Year Marathon,” an outline describing how Communist China would advance on a global scale over the coming century, hence “100 years” (Steinke, Krentzig, Langstaff, 2022). The intent of this plan was to create China as a powerful nation, one that existed not only as a strong influencer in its local area but as a major global power. Since its founding in 1949, China has achieved this idea of becoming a global power. In 2010, it earned the second-largest gross domestic product (GDP) in the world, surpassing even Japan, its neighbor (Steinke, Krentzig, Langstaff, 2022).
Communist China has also had a significant conflict with the West, serving as a world-stage opponent against the U.S. regularly since its founding. This distrust of Western powers comes from a history of conflict with Great Britain. In the 1800s, Britain got a great many Chinese citizens addicted to foreign opium. When Chinese leadership attempted to ban the opium trade to stop it, Britain went to war against China to continue their lucrative trade deals. This has, understandably, left China with a large distrust of allowing Western powers any influence within the country. As the Second World War came to a close and the Cold War began, China allied itself with Russia against the West.
This came to a head in 1989, when Chinese military forces swept through a student demonstration in Tiananmen Square, killing thousands of pro-democracy speakers and activists, as well as their followers who had gathered to listen to the protests (Steinke, Krentzig, Langstaff, 2022). The Chinese premier, a man by the name of Xi Jinping, has since declared that he shall make China free of any and all Western influence and has done everything in his power to sweep the Tiananmen Square massacre under the rug, finding great success in doing so within his own country (Steinke, Krentzig, Langstaff, 2022).
All of this added together means that China seems wholly against both their neighbors and the West at large, not militarily, but at least politically. In such a case, it is necessary to review what China’s current military capabilities are, so that if they ever do come against the West or its neighbors militarily, their threat is known and can be adequately prepared for.
Literature Review and Methodology
For the purpose of this paper, many sources needed to be used to create a fair conclusion. The writer had to use specifically high-level sources, such as government releases, both Chinese and non-Chinese, think tank publications, and academic journal articles related to the field of China. Fortunately, as a major global superpower, there is very little shortage of information about the PRC.
However, this comes as a double edged sword. Every source on any topic is biased in some way. No matter what, the writer’s bias will, in some way, slip into whatever it is they are writing about, even if they try to maintain neutrality. This is unavoidable in any type of research, but very specifically when talking about the PRC. Since the PRC typically performs hostile or aggressive actions against its neighbors, they often view it in a negative light. Sources that come from these countries will typically have a very strong anti-China bias, as their authors have been threatened by the country before. For example, one source used, about China’s attempted occupation of the Malacca Strait is written by an Indian Air Force flight commander. In his conclusion, this flight commander expresses extremely anti-China views, accusing China of neo-colonialism as the driving effort in its attempts to control the strait (Choudhary, 2023). On the other hand, however, Chinese resources tend to be extremely pro-China, as the CCP maintains an outright chokehold on most information that leaves the country, meaning that a chinese source that isn’t pro-China is difficult to come by. Chinese politicians in some sources will make grandiose claims about an obviously aggressive expansion merely being China securing its borders against perceived outside threats (Bugos, Klare, 2023).
This writer has also previously written about China and its military, discussing the many threats China is able to pose to the U.S. – not just militarily, but also economically, diplomatically, and even intelligence-wise – specifically for an academic book. This previous writing is used as a source in this paper.
Considering this, this writer is left with little choice but to take each source and compare them using only information that can be agreed upon. When making a conclusion, the biases of the sources used to make this conclusion must be considered, or the conclusion cannot be accepted as anything more than what the writer wants it to be. They hope that this conclusion is as well founded as possible, and that the viewer agrees with them once they have finished reading.
These comparisons were made across multiple specific topics, namely the PLA, the PLAAF, the PLAN, China’s nuclear capabilities, and China’s recent actions towards its neighbors and the West. After all the information this writer could collect is brought together, an analysis of what can and can’t be agreed upon as fact or insinuation will be conducted. After this analysis is finished, a conclusion will be made based on the facts this writer has found.
Section 1: Chinese Army
The People’s Republic of China possesses the largest military in the world, numbering over two million soldiers in active duty service, with even more in reserves. This is not terribly surprising, seeing as China is the most populated country in the world as well, but a military of such size presents a massive threat should China ever decide to march to war. Alongside this massive military, China sports a large array of modern equipment to augment these soldiers. The PLA is by no means an overwhelming horde that crashes upon its enemies in the hopes that enough manpower will break them. They possess tactics and modern equipment.
One of the most recent developments in China’s ground military capabilities is the new infantry rifle, the QBZ-191 (Makichuk, 2020). The QBZ-191 is an upgrade to the QBZ-95, which has been in service since 1997. The two differ because the QBZ-191 abandons the bullpup design of the 95, opting for a more conventional magazine in front of trigger layout, with barrel-long Picatinny rails. The 191 is also notable for doing away with many design flaws that the 95 had, meaning that the standard battle rifle of the PLA will be much more on par with its Western counterparts than it was prior to this new advancement (Makichuk, 2020).
China’s military has been changing its tactics to have a more modern, mobile, and lethal ground force, augmented with modern infantry-based weaponry and better vehicles (Department of the Army, 2020). The idea behind this is that they will have a fully mechanized armed force, meaning that rapid deployment in offensive and defensive scenarios will be made drastically easier (Cordsman, 2021). Its military is split between thirteen group armies (roughly equivalent to the U.S. Army Corps) to allow multiple forces to act separately at once. This large army being able to spread out and use highly mobile warfare rapidly would be tricky for enemy forces to contend against in the field of battle, which is likely what China is relying upon (Cordsman, 2021). China has also been developing anti-space weaponry as well as developing its military into a space force (Langeland, 2021). In 2007, China demonstrated the ability to attack satellites present in low earth orbit (LEO). In doing so, they created a field of over 3,000 pieces of debris (Langeland, 2021). Chinese politicians outlined, in a defense white paper made in 2019, that they are capable of wiping out every U.S. space asset currently in use with these weapons (Langeland, 2021). Alongside this, China has begun the development of hypersonic missiles that may be capable of outclassing all Western missile and missile defense capabilities. The specs revealed by Chinese officials have worried U.S. officials greatly because of this (Steinke, Krentzig, Langstaff, 2022). China’s air force has also been making major strides in advancement. PLAAF, together with PLAN Aviation, is the largest force of air power in the South Pacific region and constitutes the third-largest air force in the world (Cordsman, 2021). They have augmented this air force with large amounts of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for use as scouting and long-range precision strike craft. The PLAAF’s role in China’s military is to “serve as a comprehensive strategic air force capable of long-range airpower projection” (Cordsman, 2021).
Section 2: China’s Navy
A country’s navy is just as formidable as its ground army, perhaps even more so, as a navy can reach areas that a conventional army cannot. A navy can move vast resources of air and manpower great distances, completely eliminating the natural defense that an ocean would usually provide. However, a navy also provides its own defense, being able to defend against other countries’ navies. China’s navy is no different, and in fact, it is growing.
In a recent Pentagon report, released by the U.S. Naval Institute, it was discovered that the PLAN is seeking to massively increase its size, planning to have over 400 vessels by 2025 (LaGrone, 2022). However, at the present moment, China is still in possession of a very large fleet. It has a vast fleet of at least 60 submarines, four of which are able to fire nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, and six of which are nuclear-powered, meaning that they can travel great distances (Nuclear Threat Initiative, 2021). Traveling great distances without needing to stop for fuel means that the areas of the world that they can attack are greatly increased. On top of this, China seems to be developing its navy into a blue water navy. A blue water navy is one that is able to travel outside of a country’s waters into the ocean itself (Funaiole, M. Bermudez, J. Hart, B, 2021). This is most evident in the construction of their third aircraft carrier. Commercial satellite imagery discovered China has made significant progress on constructing an aircraft carrier dubbed the “Type 003” back in 2021. The Type 003 will be the largest aircraft carrier in China’s arsenal upon completion if it has not already been completed (Funaiole, M. Bermudez, J. Hart, B, 2021). Aircraft carriers are also a form of force multipliers to naval power like nuclear submarines. Being able to strike at a foe from the air is much better than sea-to-sea engagements. Aircraft carriers are also readily capable of attacking ground targets using their airpower.
Both a blue water navy, massive aircraft carriers, and a large fleet of submarines, including nuclear-powered submarines, are not usually meant for defense. The role for these types of navies is purely for aggression or offense. This removes a lot of the credence China would otherwise have when its politicians say their naval developments are purely defensive in nature. China knows that it has the ability to exert its influence upon its neighbors through naval power, and uses it against its many maritime neighbors (Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2021). China will frequently force other countries’ fishers or even their own naval vessels out of international water, using their own naval power as a thinly veiled threat. This makes the PRC a massive power not just globally, but especially in its immediate sphere of influence. Countries like Vietnam, South Korea, and Japan must regularly contend with China’s power in the region to exist peacefully (Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2021). An example of China doing this is with the Malacca Strait. The Strait is an extremely important passage between Malaysia and Indonesia that most trade between the China Sea and the Indian Ocean must go through, as otherwise, these countries must go entirely around Indonesia to trade (Choudhary, 2023). China, viewing this as a possible exploitable weakness, has expressed a desire to take this Strait under their own control, despite not owning any of the area that surrounds it. Chinese politicians have expressed their interest in the Strait’s defense is purely for the betterment of the surrounding countries, but it would require them moving troops and warships into Malaysia and Indonesia. India in particular, which China frequently feuds with and uses the Strait incredibly often, is wholly against the idea (Choudhary, 2023).
Section 3: Nuclear Capabilities
Nuclear warheads are the single most devastating weapons currently in existence. In minutes, a single warhead can wipe out an entire city in a nuclear blast, and throw up even more dangerous nuclear material into the air which can spread hundreds of miles. Nuclear weapons were the primary reason the Cold War never went hot, as both sides understood that such a war could only result in the utter annihilation of the world. Because of this power, nuclear arsenals are kept under close watch by world powers so as not to fall into the hands of any leaders who would use them to end the world.
China is one of the few countries worldwide that possesses a nuclear arsenal, and just recently is believed to have expanded its nuclear arsenal to possess over four hundred weapons (Bugos, Klare, 2023). In a Pentagon release, it was said that China has been expanding its nuclear arsenal in a way so rapid that they are incapable of hiding it from the global eye. On the other hand, Chinese officials have claimed that they are only expanding as rapidly as is legally allowed and are doing so exclusively for defensive purposes (Bugod, Klare, 2023). However, it is highly likely that the former is correct since China’s plans seem to be to create vast stockpiles of nuclear weapons not too dissimilar to the Soviet Union (Cordsman, 2021).
Another advancement in Chinese nuclear capabilities is its more recent desire to become a nuclear triad (Chinapower, 2020). A nuclear triad is a country that is capable of deploying weapons from the air, the ground, and at sea. There are the conventional nuclear bombs, as seen dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, dropped by planes, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that are launched from silos in the ground, and missiles that can be launched by either submarines or other water-based vessels (Chinapower 2020).
Among them, the most dangerous worldwide would be the submarines. As stated prior, China has been expanding their arsenal of submarines alongside their nuclear arsenal (Nuclear Threat Initiative, 2021). Submarines are capable of moving through the water undetected, surfacing without warning, firing a missile, and then diving before any form of threat can be leveled against them (Nuclear Threat Initiative, 2021). Such a threat would be able to move clear past all deterrent and defensive measures China’s opponents could wield, and attack them directly with no warning. However, ground based silos would be no-less effective against China’s neighboring opponents, as they are well within range of the country’s hyper-sonic missile systems.
However, not all nuclear arsenals are purely for offensive means. Since nuclear weapons have the ability to end the world, they work far better as a deterrent than as an actual weapon. When an enemy nation knows that war means mutually assured destruction, they are much less likely to invade unless absolutely necessary. China is aware of this, and has stated that their more recent nuclear developments are purely for their own national defense (Bugos, Klare, 2023). However, other world powers have accused China of exceeding its allowances on nuclear development in a way that is deliberately threatening and even illegal (Kan, 2015). China faces pressure from nearly all sides to reduce its arsenal or to at the very least stop expanding it, yet it does not seem keen on doing so.
Section 4: China’s Actions
Of course, with all of these advancements to military might, China has remained insistent that all of this is purely for defensive means. None of this is supposed to be an abject threat to Japan, India, Korea, Vietnam, or Western powers that China opposes, according to China. China’s neighbors and Western leaders, however, believe quite differently. Many of them believe that Chinese military expansion and advancement is rooted in hostile thought, and that the PRC desires to use these advancements to take hostile actions against them. The most vocal amongst these would be Taiwan, formally known as the Republic of China.
China defines Taiwan as part of its nation, not a sovereign nation. Taiwan, on the other hand, desires independence. Taiwan possesses no seat on the United Nations, and cannot make decisions for itself, instead almost entirely reliant on Chinese and American influence (Department of Defense, 2020). Under the Taiwan Relations Act, the U.S. is allowed to have unofficial relations with Taiwan (Department of Defense, 2020), and has used these relations with the U.S. to further its own goals of seeking independence from China. This has further strained the relationship between China and the U.S., as China views this as Western influence attempting to cause a succession in rightly Chinese territory. In response to this, China has created a law named the “Anti-Secessionist Law,” which allows China to use non-peaceful actions should secessionist forces cause Taiwan to secede from China. This makes any attempt at Taiwanese liberation or secession incredibly difficult, as the full might of the Chinese PLA could, at a moment, fall upon the tiny nation (Anti-Secessionist Law, 2005).
In 2015, China performed further hostile actions, this time targeted against Japan. In the East China Sea, there is a group of uninhabited islands known as the Senkaku Islands to Japan, the Diaoyu Islands to China, and the Tiaoyutai islands to Taiwan. All three nations constantly bicker over ownership of the islands, but Japan is in control of them at present after America returned them after the post-second world war occupation of Japan. For this paper, they will be referred to as the Senkaku Islands, as Japan currently owns them (H. Res. 463, 2016). Chinese maritime patrol boats and aircraft pressed in on the sovereign territory of the Senkaku Islands. This was a challenge directed at Japan for ownership of the islands (H. Res. 463, 2016).
Later on that same year, China created over 3,200 square acres of land in the South China Sea, greatly expanding the Spratly Islands, which China owns. Legally, this increased land mass affords China no extra maritime waters to keep and allows them to construct larger and larger military bases in the islands, meaning its chokehold on the South China Sea has grown even further (H. Res. 463, 2016). U.S. policymakers responded to this act of, what they called, malicious expansion by sanctioning China, and forbidding anyone participating in these actions from entering the United States. Also, any American found assisting in the buildup of the Spratly Islands would be severely punished (H. Res. 463, 2016). Another hostile act to reiterate is the already expressed expansion into the Malacca Strait, violating the sovereign territory of Indonesia and Malaysia by forcing troops into their land and warships into their harbors under the guise of defending it from foreign threats (Choudhary, 2023). Indian officials have refused this idea of China using it exclusively for defense, and claim that its military could, if allowed to control the Strait, become the very terroristic force that it claims to be defending against, closing off the Strait for use by any of China’s opponents (Choudhary, 2023). Chinese threats have not purely been physical, either. The country will occasionally resort to attacks through cyberspace rather than direct military confrontation. This has become much more commonplace through recent upgrades in cyberwarfare capabilities worldwide, and China has not been shy to put them to use. In 2021, Chinese hackers launched malicious malware raids on Microsoft, a U.S.-based computer company. They compromised tens of thousands of computers that could hold any number of important information vital to the U.S. and its allies (The White House, 2021). In response, the Biden administration created the Cyber Unified Coordination Group (UCG) to better understand and combat cyberattacks launched against the U.S. and its allies by the PRC (The White House, 2021). The UCG found that U.S. cyber capabilities are far behind its Chinese counterparts, and must make major strides to advance its capabilities unless it wants another attack of this scale – or even worse – to occur (The White House, 2021).
Discussion/Analysis
With all of this taken into consideration, a final conclusion can be drawn as to whether or not China’s military buildup is for defensive or offensive means. Much has been pooled together, from the advancement and tactics of their army, navy, and air force to the increased development of their nuclear arsenal, and lastly, with the actions China has taken with this vast sum of military assets.
China’s army has been developing in a way only usable in offensive means. Their primary goal with their upgraded vehicles and mechanization is to create an army that is highly mobile and extremely capable in maneuver warfare, similar to the Blitzkrieg used by Nazi Germany at the start of the second world war (Cordsman, 2021). Maneuver warfare is hardly useful in defensive operations, and would only help in making retreating from overrun positions or reinforcing those positions easier. Thus it is highly unlikely that China is modernizing the PLA in this way exclusively for defensive means, and more likely that its goal is a much better offensive military. The development of anti-space weaponry and the PLAAF can be construed as defensive. This author has no reason to believe that the anti-space missiles are not intended to strike down hostile satellites that would be attempting to acquire key information during a war (Steinke, Krentzig, Langstaff, 2022). These satellites present a major, ardent threat to Chinese defensive military operations, as it would allow their enemies to know their movements and plan operations around it. The PLAAF development could equally be construed defensively, had Chinese officials not declared that the intent behind their air force was for “long-range force projection” (Cordsman, 2021). It goes without saying that long-range force projection is intended for use outside of China.
The PLAN has seen similar hostile developments through its submarine and aircraft carrier buildup programs. Aircraft carriers are made to project a country’s air power outside of its international waters (Steinke, Krentzig, Langstaff, 2022). If a threat is within the country, planes can merely deploy from air bases within the country itself, rather than from boats in the ocean. Also, nuclear-equipped submarines are intended to travel large distances, far outside national waters, meaning that these submarines can reach across the entire Pacific Ocean (Nuclear Threat Initiative, 2021). This is all without mentioning that a blue water navy, by definition, is intended for international waters, where China can project its force outside of its own boundaries. Lastly, the nuclear arsenal of China seems to be developing in a way that is illegal by international standards. However, this author cannot confirm this, as no publicly available source explicitly states how much or how rapidly China is expanding its arsenal, and Chinese representatives claim it is expanding in a perfectly legal way (Bugos, Klare, 2023). This argument is outside of this author’s capability to state a decisive conclusion on, as so many facts are shrouded in mystery.
One must also take into account the actions China has taken against its peers. This includes, but is not limited to, using its naval warships to enforce its will upon Vietnamese fishing boats, violating Japanese airspace to press its claims on the Senkaku islands, launching cyber warfare attacks against American businesses, and attempting to force its military upon its neighbors in order to gain control of an extremely important area, vital for trade in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. Taking all of these things into account, this author is able to conclude that China’s military is most likely being built up for offensive purposes. Who these offensive actions would be taken against could be a paper all in of itself, but it is most likely that the build up itself is for the purposes of attacking something, and that Chinese officials are lying when they claim it is purely for defensive means.
Conclusion
Over the course of this paper, the build-up of China’s military arsenal has been discussed, going over the army, the air force, the navy, its nuclear arsenal, and what actions China has taken with these military forces, hostile or not. China has taken great lengths to increase their military, all in the name of defense, according to its officials, but this author has concluded that these claims of defense are most likely lies, and development has highly offensive means.
As for the PLA, the PRC has been updating and upgrading their forces to augment them for maneuver warfare, and it has been developing ground based anti-satellite weaponry. For the PLAAF, it has been building up its fleet of planes and UAV with the intent of projecting its force over long distances, likely far exceeding Chinese borders. For the PLAN, there have been great strides to increase their submarine and aircraft carrier fleets for the creation of a blue water navy projecting Chinese force far into international waters. China’s nuclear arsenal has been increasing at a rate that many other powers claim to be violating international treaties.
Above all else, China’s actions lead this author to conclude it’s developing for offensive means. A country is allowed to have a military capable of going on the offense. Still, China has regularly shown its desire to harass or bully its neighbors using its military, which is drastically larger than anything they would be able to field. Considering all of this, this author, and hopefully the reader, too, can only conclude that China’s military buildup is most likely a threat rather than a defense.
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